According to the data released by the operation Bureau of the national development and Reform Commission, the national crude steel output was 1032.79 million tons in 2021, a year-on-year decrease of 3 percent and a year-on-year increase of 5.2 percent in 2020; Steel output was 1336.67 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 0.6 percent , and the growth rate decreased by 7.1 percentage points year-on-year. Coke output was 464.46 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.2 percent and a year-on-year increase of 0.04 percent in 2020; Ferroalloy output was 34.76 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.4 percent , an increase of 1.7 percentage points over the previous year. Customs statistics show that in 2021, steel exports were 66.9 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 24.6 percent , and imports were 14.27 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 29.5 percent ; The import of iron ore was 1124.32 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.9 percent .
In 2021, the crude steel output of the iron and steel industry was high before and low after, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease. In the first half of 2021, the iron ore price continued to rise, and the oscillation fell in the second half of 2021. In 2021, the steel price fluctuated upward, and the high correction began in the fourth quarter. China's total steel export in 2021 was higher than that in 2020, and fell month by month in the second half of the year. Affected by the overall improvement of the national economy, the rise of global commodity prices and other factors, the benefits of the iron and steel industry showed a trend of high before low in 2021, with the highest benefits in history. Data show that in 2021, China's key large and medium-sized iron and steel enterprises had a cumulative operating income of 6.93 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.7 percent ; The total accumulated profit was 352.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 59.7 percent , a record high; The sales profit margin reached 5.08 percent , 0.85 percentage points higher than that in 2020.
In 2022, the macro policy requires "stability at the head and seeking progress in stability", and the domestic steel market consumption will maintain a steady growth trend. The relevant person of China Iron and Steel Association pointed out that the raw material price fluctuates at a high level, and the high-cost production trend of steel continues. It is expected that the steel price will be high before and low after 2022, and the average price of ordinary hot-rolled steel will be lower than that in 2021.
A relevant person from China Iron and Steel Association said that the release of China's iron and steel output in 2022 will still be subject to certain constraints. It is expected that China's crude steel output in 2022 will be basically the same as that in 2021. Considering the influence of factors such as peak shifting production in autumn and winter in the first quarter, the annual output may show a trend of low before high.
In 2022, the export volume of steel will decline year-on-year, and the import volume will remain relatively high. China's steel export is expected to drop by about 60000 tons in 2022; The import of steel was about 14.5 million tons, basically unchanged year-on-year. China has established relatively stable billet import channels in Southeast Asia, the Middle East and other regions through international steel production capacity cooperation, which will support China's billet import volume to remain high. It is estimated that China's billet import volume will be about 15 million tons in 2022, an increase of about 9.3 percent over 2021.
The domestic steel market demand will maintain a steady growth trend. Driven by real estate investment and infrastructure investment, the consumption of crude steel in the domestic market is expected to be about 1 billion tons in 2022, an increase of 1.6 percent over the 990 million tons in 2021.
China's iron and steel production enterprises will still be in the trend of high cost operation. It is estimated that China's steel output in 2022 will be basically the same as that in 2021. With the further recovery of the world economy, overseas steel production will continue to rise and promote the growth of demand for steel raw materials. However, the new output of major international ore suppliers is limited, and the global iron ore supply and demand is generally tight.
To sum up, in 2022, China's steel output will be low before and high after, and the market demand will be high before and low after. The high point of steel price will appear in the first half of the year. The second half of the year is dominated by oscillation adjustment, and the average price of ordinary steel in the whole year will be lower than that in 2021.
